Vive la Revolution
2017 is a critical year for European politics not to mention the triggering of Article 50 and Trump.
As if Theresa Mays job as PM leading the country through a Brexit process wasn’t hard enough already, Boris Johnson has landed her in even more of a tricky position after being ‘secretly’ recorded at a private dinner this week.
As if Theresa Mays job as PM leading the country through a Brexit process wasn’t hard enough already, Boris Johnson has landed her in even more of a tricky position after being ‘secretly’ recorded at a private dinner this week. Johnson warned that there may be a Brexit meltdown and refereed to the Treasury as the ‘heart of Remain’. Johnson also stated his admiration for Donald Trump and hinted that he would do a better job of dealing with Brexit. At a time when May needs to be in a position of strength she’s had two senior cabinet members in the form of Davis and Johnson publicly undermine her this week!
Data already released this morning disappointingly failed to suggest the Q1 weakness seen in the Eurozone was down to temporary factors. German Industrial output disappointed in April, falling back by 1.0% on the month (consensus +0.3%). March was revised higher to show a rise of 1.7% (previously +1.0%), but overall the report is softer than expected, and comes after the weaker than expected new orders figures yesterday.
With little out on the data front today markets attention will turn to next week, which is a lot busier. The Federal Reserve in the US are expected to raise rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday night. On Thursday the ECB meet to deliver their policy verdict although no change in expected. Market will as always be looking for pointers on any potential change in strategy. The UK doesn’t meet next week but rather on the 21st June, though the next critical meeting is in August. A speech yesterday by MPC member Dave Ramsden suggests he may support raising rates in August, having previously dissented against the hike seen in November 2017, but a hike is not yet a foregone conclusion.
Good morning and welcome to another day of the digital revolution. Yes that’s right, none of us can escape the fact that innovation in the business world is accelerating exponentially, with new, disruptive technologies and trends emerging that are fundamentally changing how businesses and the global economy operate. Whether you are excited by the idea that by 2020 the average person will have more conversations with bots than with their spouse is another matter, but here at Investec we understand that to thrive in this new world we need to be aware of these evolutionary technologies and continue to develop our digital presence. Cue the introduction to our brand new Hedging Analytics platform – a constantly evolving, state of the art online system which gives you, the client, the ability to see your currency portfolio in a dynamic and intuitive way. Providing a visual representation of any currency gaps, HA gives you a greater understanding of your FX risk and the potential impact of this risk on your companies P&L. To join us on this journey of digital innovation, give our dealing desk a call on 020 7597 4000 and we can get you logged in today.
The world outside these four walls the big news is that EU leaders managed to come to an agreement in the early hours of the morning on how to deal with rescued migrants.
As luck would have it, when I hit shuffle on my Spotify this morning Mungo Jerry’s “In the Summertime” came on.
Is it a bird? Is it a plane? Well your second guess was close enough, it’s a 3rd runway for Heathrow.
On the last trading day of the week, the most notable development in markets was a sharp lift in crude oil prices, with WTI and Brent rising 4.6% and 3.4%, respectively.
The pound inched higher yesterday afternoon as news broke Theresa May had managed to avoid a Tory rebellion and avoid defeat in Parliament over her flagship Brexit bill.