Vive la Revolution
2017 is a critical year for European politics not to mention the triggering of Article 50 and Trump.
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The U.K.’s general election is actually 650 separate votes in 650 individual districts. Most seats won’t change hands, and the outcome of only about 100 will determine the final tally for Theresa May’s Conservatives and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party.
If the result is close in any given district, a recount could delay the announcement. The key to interpreting these results as they come in is the concept of swing, the shift in votes from one party to another compared with the previous election in 2015, which is used to estimate how many seats might change hands. At the moment, the polls are very mixed. The most favorable for May suggests a swing of close to 3 percentage points to the Tories, which might increase their majority to 80 seats or more. The least favorable, with a swing of more than 2 points to Labour, sees the Conservatives losing perhaps 15 seats and their parliamentary majority.
Source: Bloomberg, Eddie Buckle, 6 June 2017
Voting ends across the U.K.
Sunderland count finishes first
Battersea and Putney results
Three results in Labour-held seats
50 results in by now
Result from Corbyn’s Islington London due
Getting toward peak results time now
More than a third of results will be in by now
This will be the busiest time…
Two-thirds of the results should be in
If it’s still going down to the wire…
More than 600 results should be in by now.
One late result of interest will be Thanet South, Kent
This information has been sourced from Bloomberg, and Investec Bank plc are not responsible for the accuracy of the contents.