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Economic Timeline

Key economic events for 2016 - 2017 

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  • October
  • Sep/Oct 2nd

    Review of Greek bailout

    X Review of Greek bailout Greece’s progress on reforms and reducing its deficit will be evaluated by its official creditors. A critical question is how much progress Greece is making towards a 2018 primary surplus target of 3.5% of GDP, in turn determining whether automatic spending cuts come into force. Worth bearing in mind that these reviews have often resulted in Greek uncertainty rising. Please click here for disclaimer Page 2

  • Conservative party conference

    2-5 Oct

    Conservative Party conference

    X Conservative Party conference Conservative party ideas and policies for the year ahead will be shared and the conference could illustrate some key economic objectives of the Conservatives over the coming year. The event is in Birmingham.

  • IMF/World Bank Annual meeting

    3-9 Oct

    IMF and World Bank meeting

    X IMF and World Bank meeting The IMF and World Bank will hold their annual meeting in Washington. During the week the IMF will also publish its updated World Economic Outlook. The IMF meeting may also see the Yuan formally enter the IMF’s SDR basket, having been approved last year.

  • 9 Oct

    US Presidential TV debate

    X US Presidential TV debate Second Presidential TV debate, Washington University, St Louis

  • 10-11 Oct

    EU and Euro area finance ministers meetings

    X EU and Euro area finance ministers meetings Economic and Finance ministers meet. Greece may be on the agenda given September’s (assumed) disbursement is only expected to cover financing until the end of October.

  • 14 Oct

    Yellen to speak at Boston Fed Conference

    X Yellen to speak at Boston Fed Conference Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at the 60th Economic Conference in Boston.

  • 19 Oct

    US Presidential TV debate

    X US Presidential TV debate Third Presidential TV debate, University of Nevada, Las Vegas

  • EU Summit

    20-21 Oct

    EU Summit

    X EU Summit EU Leader Summit, Brussels

  • 24-25 Oct

    ECB-IMF workshop

    X ECB-IMF workshop A joint workshop on money markets, monetary policy implementation and market infrastructures.

  • Oct/Nov

    Italian referendum

    X Italian referendum Italy is set to hold a referendum on Senate reform, which aims to reduce the number of Senators to 100 from 315. An important consideration is that PM Matteo Renzi has stated that he would resign if the vote failed to pass, raising the potential for renewed political instability in the eurozone’s third largest economy.

  • November
  • FOMC announcement

    2 Nov

    FOMC announcement

    X FOMC announcement The FOMC will review its policy stance. We envisage no change in policy just 6 days ahead of the Presidential election.

  • 3 Nov

    UK MPC announcement

    X UK MPC announcement This is likely to be an important meeting for the MPC. The MPC will be looking at the post-referendum data and if it remains as weak as the BoE’s August inflation report outlook it will likely opt to cut the Bank rate further from 0.25% to 0.10%. The Bank of England will publish its next Inflation Report too.

  • 7-8 Nov

    EU and Euro area finance ministers meetings

    X EU and Euro area finance ministers meetings Economic and Finance ministers meet.

  • Start of Republican primaries

    8 Nov US

    Presidential election

    X Presidential election The contest for the 45th President of the United States will culminate in a head to head race between Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican candidate Donald Trump; Clinton is currently the clear favourite. The winner will formally take office 20 Jan 2017.

  • 16 Nov

    EU finance ministers meetings

    X EU finance ministers meetings Economic and Finance ministers meet.

  • French Presidential elections

    20 Nov

    France: Les Républicains primaries

    X France: Les Républicains primaries Presidential primaries for Les Républicains, the centre-right party with a possible run-off on the 27th Nov if no candidate obtains at least 50% of the vote in the first round. Most likely to be a battle between Alain Juppé and Nicolas Sarkozy.

  • 20 Nov

    China’s 13th Plenum

    X China’s 13th Plenum China to announce its Five-Year Plan (2016-20) with overseas experts expecting their plans on National Economic and Social Development to have a positive and far-reaching impact on the world econom

  • Nov-Dec UK

    Autumn Statement

    X Autumn Statement New chancellor Phillip Hammond may ‘reset’ Osborne’s economic policies, particularly fiscal policy. A VAT cut is one possibility to support consumption, post-Brexit referendum whilst the new Chancellor might also look to spending initiatives to provide some stimulus. According to Theresa May, the government is no longer seeking to reach a budget surplus by 2020.

  • December
  • 5-6 Dec

    EU and Euro area finance ministers meetings

    X EU and Euro area finance ministers meetings Economic and Finance ministers meet.

  • 5-8 Dec

    Germany’s CDU annual convention

    X Germany’s CDU annual convention CDU holds its annual convention, ahead of the 2017 election Please click here for disclaimer Page 3

  • FOMC announcement

    13-14 Dec

    FOMC announcement

    X FOMC announcement FOMC to review its policy stance. Our central view envisages a 25bp rise in the Federal funds target range at this meeting, to 0.50-0.75%.

  • 15-16 Dec

    EU Summit EU Leaders Summit, Brussels

    X EU Summit EU Leaders Summit, Brussels Q4 BoE stress test results The BoE is set to publish the results from its 2016 stress test.

  • 2017
  • H1 2017

    UK to trigger Article 50?

    X UK to trigger Article 50? There is no exact date as to when the UK government will invoke Article 50, however given comments from various UK officials we suspect it will be at some point during H1 2017.

  • 17-20 Jan

    World Economic Forum

    X World Economic Forum This annual meeting promises seeks to engage the world’s top leaders in collaborative activities to shape the global, regional and industry agendas at the beginning of each year. It is worth following this event for any comments regarding policy from central bank governors.

  • 19 Jan

    ECB meeting

    X ECB meeting Monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt.

  • German Presidential election

    TBC

    German Presidential election

    X German Presidential election Following President Joachim Gauck’s announcement that he will not stand for a second term a successor will need to be found before the Federal elections later in the year. The successor will be elected by ‘Federal Convention’.

  • Mar & May

    German state elections

    X German state elections 26 Mar Saarland, 7 May Schleswig-Holstein, 14 May Nordrhein-Westfalen. Given Angela Merkel’s falling approval ratings in recent months, attention will be on the performance of the CDU ahead of the Federal election later in the year.

  • 15 Mar

    Dutch general election

    X Dutch general election No later than this date to elect all 150 members of the House of Representatives. Geert Wilders’ PVV party is currently leading in the polls, although incumbent VVD certainly remains in contention, the most recent Ipsos poll put the gap at just 2%.

  • Apr and May

    French Presidential elections

    X French Presidential elections France’s Socialist President François Hollande will face a first round run off if he decides to run for re-election. Bookmakers’ odds have Alain Juppé (Republicans) as favourite (6/4) to succeed him as President, followed by Marine Le Pen (FN) (7/2) and Nicolas Sarkozy (Republicans) (13/4).

  • Autumn

    German Federal election

    X German Federal election 22 Oct 2017 is the latest the Federal election can occur. Recent polling still puts the CDU/CSU ahead of the SDP (which is also part of the coalition government). Nonetheless Angela Merkel’s refugee policy looks to be having a detrimental impact with the CDU’s share of the vote falling roughly 10% since last summer, whilst at the same time the AfD has been gaining ground. Meanwhile Mrs Merkel’s own approval rating has witnessed a significant fall.