The Enigma of Trump - Presidential Inauguration: January 20, 2017
Churchill once described Russia as a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. The same might be said of Trump today. For the most recent update on Trump's antics, read below:
1 May 2017
Allegations that President Trump requested the FBI to drop an investigation into sacked National Security Adviser Michael Flynn are unlikely to be resolved soon. But the damage is probably limited to eating up political capital rather than hitting US growth significantly. We maintain our 2.5% 2017 growth forecast with the weak Q1 GDP reading likely to be followed by a sizeable rebound in Q2. With small firms looking set to raise prices over the coming months and with unemployment at its lowest since 2007, questions are being asked over whether inflation is set to pick-up pace. However, so far, wage growth has lacked upward momentum, keeping inflation in check. The Fed’s path for interest rates will depend on its decisions on balance sheet reduction; so far it has indicated the initial pace of shrinkage will be ‘low’, starting later this year. We expect the next increase in the Fed funds rate next month (14 June).